Past Behaviour Predicts Future Behaviour

I am convinced that the Liberal capacity for self-delusion is the most powerful force in the known universe. Nothing, it seems, will convince these Liberals that they are decidedly on the wrong track. That their grand schemes to save the world have failed. That they are not Moving Ontario Forward, but instead Going Nowhere Fast.

If I was a Liberal, and I was to consider all the misfortune that has befallen the Liberal brand in the past short while- losing municipal strongholds to populist revolts, clinging to power provincially where they haven't lost outright, a total collapse in the last federal election- first among my thoughts would be, "Hmmm. We must be doing something wrong. Let's try something a little different."

Let's use a concrete example: If I was one of Dalton's advisers, I wouldn't try to counter Tim Hudak's focused attack on my boss's total and complete uselessness by putting out a dry, boring lecture delivered by some invisible nerd who umms and ahhs into a $2 microphone for 11 minutes on the subject of a 100 billion zillion million trillion dollar hole.

I wouldn`t try this strategy, mostly because it has been tried before, and it didn`t work.

But of course, I am not a Liberal or one of Dalton's advisers. So I get to sit on the sidelines and watch these idiots act like they need to educate people about who to vote for. Listen to the Liberals talk! They're so much smarter than you!

If the Liberals have a problem with our platform, all we need to do is reply that, um, they have no credibility when it comes to managing an economy. That would be the simple thing to do. Or we could take the slightly more artful route and point out that all we've done is learn from the Liberals when it comes to not sweating the details. (Hey, how much did Family Day cost in terms of lost work-hours, again?) Or we could bang the populist drum and say that Ontarians are so angry at Dalton that they couldn't care less about how many billions in size the hole is.

Oh, but that's not the only reason why this video is a pile of crap. You see, I know that in a month or so, the Liberals are more likely than not going to do exactly the same kind of thing in their own platform. And how do I know this? Because when we announced we were going to loosen liquor laws, the Liberals made a fuss for a few weeks, then did the same thing. When we announced we were finally going to extend the 407, the Liberals freaked out for a while and then copied us. We took Rocco Rossi, they took Sarah Thomson.

Look, Dalton all but said he was going to copy Harper in this election. So when Jim Flaherty says it's time to wind down spending, what do you think Dalton's platform is going to look like?

Returning to our hypothetical example where I'm a Liberal and Dalton's advisor: If Tim Hudak really was a "reckless rookie" (and did you notice the Liberals aren't saying that so much anymore?), I'd do everything I could to distinguish myself from Hudak. But I'm not a Liberal and I'm not Dalton's advisor, so I get to watch Dalton continue to try and follow Hudak's lead. And Horwath's lead. And EVERYONE's lead. Which he is going to do, because he can't help himself. He just wants to be loved by everyone and if that means trying to suck and blow at the same time, well, why not?

Here's what's really hilarious: While nobody was looking, the Liberals and Conservatives switched places. They used to run slick campaigns and treat their opponents like afterthoughts while we looked for "opportunities to advance Conservative ideas." Now, it falls to frontline soldiers like myself to pick apart high-minded Liberal videos that are made because they have unsuccessfully tried everything else to get traction with the voting public while Tim Hudak's stride remains unbroken.

Last time I use my hypothetical example: If I was a Liberal/Dalton's advisor, and I was genuinely concerned about how every nickel and dime is not accounted for in Changebook, I would tell Dalton to go to the public, try to somehow appear natural, and explain himself person to person. But I'm not, and he won't.